Here's the deal. Most of these primaries have many candidates mud wrestling over the far-right wing of the party. Meanwhile, there is only one candidate who is trolling for moderate Republican votes.

In the Big First District, the only Republican candidate who hasn't gone totally to the far right is State Senator Jim Barnett. I have said from the beginning that he would be smart to say: "I'm a moderate Republican. Do you want an extremist in Congress or a consensus builder?" Barnett has campaigned to the right of his true ideology, but people know he is the one candidate who has a track record of working with everyone for solutions.

Tracey Mann had the Big First nomination "in the bag" after he got the Hutchinson News endorsement. But the Hutch News withdrew the endorsement over comments Mann made about Obama's birthplace. Tracey Mann is really smart, and he knows Obama was born in the U.S. But the pressure to please the "far right" overcame him. Mann still has a good chance, and although he lost votes over the "birther" controversy, he gained some votes, too. (A third of Republicans nationally believe Obama was born outside the United States.)

In the 4th Congressional District, Republican Mike Pompeo and Wink Hartman have committed double fratricide: they killed each other off, like two scorpions in a bottle, each claiming to be the most conservative. The drumbeat of negative ads by each toward the other have turned people off.

State Senator Jean Schodorf can't believe her luck. The two front-runners knocked each other out, and she can win this thing. I think she will. Tonight on the news I see that Wink Hartman and Mike Pompeo have stopped the slugfest and gone back to positive campaign messages. But it's too late. Advance voting is big in Sedgwick County, and she's winning right now.

If Pompeo or Hartman manage to win this, they are so banged up from the fratricide that Democrat Raj Goyle will win in November. Meanwhile Schodorf has run a positive campaign, with an endorsement from Nancy Landon Kassebaum.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Senator Dennis Pyle, who is running a Tea Party
attack against Republican Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins is going to lose, and lose royally.

U.S. Senate? The "American Political Almanac," considered the "Bible of American Politics", describes Jerry Moran as a moderate Republican and Todd Tiahrt as a conservative Republican. Moran's voting record is pretty right-wing, but he has a reputation as a good listener, and is a bit of a maverick, which is good. Moran is going to win.

I suspect Moran senses that voters want cooperation. His ads are mostly positive now, and in one ad he actually says: "Republicans have overspent, too." My wife, Julie, whom I would call a "reasonable Republican" really liked the fact that Moran mentions the bi-partisan nature of the overspending. Moran is superb at reading the true political climate.

In the Secretary of State's race, Libby Ensley DESERVES to win, and J.R. Claeys seems like a reasonable fellow. But Kris Kobach is famous for his anti-immigration stance. I think he might survive the primary, but I hope not. If Kobach wins, he and Sam Brownback (Governor candidate) will be the odd men out: two far-right guys outnumbered by Barnett, Jenkins, Schodorf and Moran. Keep in mind, Barnett, Jenkins, Schodorf and Moran are plenty conservative, but not by Tea Party standards.

As President, Barack Obama has been very disappointing so far. But one thing he was right about in his 2004 Democratic Convention speech is that Americans WANT the two parties to work together to solve problems. And voters next Tuesday will largely elect problem-solvers with a history of reaching across the aisle.

I haven't mentioned the 3rd Congressional District race in Johnson County, because while I know that Patricia Lightner is a conservative, I have no idea what Kevin Yoder is, other than a political windsock. That race is not about "conservative vs. moderate" but about authenticity versus phoniness. And Yoder does not appear to be a guy with any convictions about anything, save his own career advancement. I think Johnson County voters will "see through him" and that conservative Patricia Lightner will be rewarded for her authenticity. She might be wrong on some things, but if so, she's sincerely wrong.

State legislative races? I don't know. The Kansas Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity are gunning for Republican legislators who voted for the sales tax increase. Kansans tend to be pragmatic: they want good schools, good roads, good law enforcement. And I suspect the moderate Republicans in the legislature will come out okay on Tuesday, although some will lose.

If the Republican moderates make a comeback on Tuesday, it will be bad news for Democrats, short term. It's easier for a Democrat to beat an extremist Republican than a moderate Republican. However, long term, Kansas will be a better state if both parties set up their concession stands right in the middle. My political science professor at KU, Al Cigler, taught me that the center is where the votes are. I still believe him. Those who set up their concession stand toward the middle are going to win on Tuesday: Moran, Schodorf, Barnett, and so forth.

American political views, right-to-left, are still a bell shaped curve. The votes are in the middle. But on the far sides of the big bell-shaped curve, is a small bump on the far right, and a small bump on the far left. These "lunatic fringe" bumps are more pronounced than ever, because the "information age" now allows extremists on both sides to watch their own extremist TV channel, to read their own extremist stuff on the internet, to listen only to extremist radio, and to communicate only with other extremists.

Dr. Cigler was referring to general elections, not primaries, when he taught me about the metaphorical concession stand. So I could be flat wrong about all of this. But this I know for sure: in the general election, extremists won't do well in Kansas. Just ask any Barry Goldwater supporter from the 1964 campaign.