GREAT BEND, Kan. - At the 2000 Democratic Convention in Los Angeles, an unknown State Senator from Illinois with a funny name attended the convention, but could not even snare a floor pass to the convention. The State Senator had recently gotten crushed 61% to 30% in a Congressional race in Illinois, and had no discernible future in politics.
Eight years later that unknown State Senator was elected President of the United States. Obama was cocky and foolish to challenge Congressman Bobby Rush (D-IL) in 2000. But Obama seems to have a habit of trying something audacious, getting crushed, but then making a comeback against all odds.
When Obama, a relative newcomer to the U.S. Senate, challenged Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic nomination for President, he was written off by many as an overconfident upstart. When he stunned everyone by winning the Iowa caucuses, he got overconfident in New Hampshire a few days later -- and lost.
But then he seemed to use his reserve and resolve to come back and snare the nomination, and the Presidency. Obama's habit of overconfidence, then failure, then a dramatic and unexpected comeback is resurfacing. I think it's happening right now with health care and the economy.
It's difficult to see how Obama's handling of health care during his first year of office could have been any worse. He handed the issue to Senator Max Baucus (D-Montana), and the result was disastrous. Former and current health insurance and drug company lobbyists working for Baucus wrote a health care bill that was so bad no one knew how to explain its benefits to the general public.
Giving Max Baucus control of health care is like giving a loaded M-16 to a ten-year-old. It might be interesting, but nothing good can come from it. It's as stupid as Obama, the Hyde Park Harvard boy, running against the street smart Chicago Congressman Bobby Rush in 2000. But Obama has always learned from his mistakes.
As recently as a month ago, health care reform was considered dead. "Move on to another issue," some people said to Obama. Some health insurance companies were so sure it was over that they brazenly raised premiums. But now Obama comes roaring back again and appears on the verge of passing a pretty good health care bill by the end of the month.
And the economy? It's still bad, but two straight months of 9.7% unemployment rates suggest that the economy has stopped losing ground. Americans are suffering, but if the unemployment figures start ticking downward in April, the economy may be substantially better by the November mid-term elections.
Obama's penchant for overconfidence, spectacular failure, and then unexpected victory remind me of what happened to another confident African-American, Cassius Clay, in 1963. Clay had predicted a fifth round knockout of British Heavyweight Champion Henry Cooper. Clay baited the 40,000 spectators in Wembly Stadium in London by entering the ring wearing a cardboard crown, well before he became Heavyweight Champion.
Clay (who later changed his name to Muhammad Ali) was toying with Henry Cooper late in the fourth round, waiting for the fifth round to finish him off. (Cooper had a gash over his left eye.) And then it happened. Henry Cooper floored Cassius Clay with a left hook that could knock a barn down. The "Louisville Lip" was saved by the bell.
But then he got his bearings, came back in the fifth round, and TKO'ed Cooper in the Fifth Round, just as he predicted.
Something tells me that Obama cannot be written off; like Clay, he got some sense knocked into him, and is going to have another successful breakthrough, after overconfidence and failure. If a meaningful health care bill passes this month, and if the economy continues to improve, Obama may be looking more like a guy who deserves not just a floor pass to the 2012 Democratic National Convention, but a unanimous renomination for President of the United States.
Marty, I'm a basketball fan and this is the season for upsets! It is very dangerous to spot the other team 12 or 15 points in the first half. Consistency is a much better strategy. K.U. is probably the best team in the nation. But if they are not careful they may not take the crown. Comebacks are great to talk about years down the road, but a 1 point deficit, when it counts, elimates the chance for comeback later in the tournament.
Ken, I agree. I don't like the way Obama does this. Some humility is in order. It's best to get it right the first time and not squander opportunities. America has suffered because of the way he botched health care over the last year. I wish things were different, but this seems to be how the President is.
Cassius Clay may not be the best analogy, because Obama is not an overt braggart. But Obama assumes he is going to win, and then gets floored, but then does something. Personally, I can do without the drama. Just solve problems right away.
Marty,
Off topic but thanks for replying to someone posting a comment. My favorite magazine is "Atlantic Monthly" and they always feature comments and feadback from readers to the authors and back. This can be very revealing when a writer disputes a story and the author most post a defense. I've even seen publications that will deliberately post misteaks and falsehuds to see if reeders are paying attention.