HAYS, Kan. - With Sen. Sam Brownback (R) not seeking reelection to the Senate in order to launch his run for Kansas Governor, two House Republicans are apparently in a dead heat in the Republican Primary for the open U.S. Senate seat. The primary contest is now just 8 months away.
Jerry MoranEarlier this fall it appeared that Jerry Moran had the lead. In November, Todd Tiahrt catapulted forward and is now running neck-and-neck with Moran.
The two are effectively tied. Moran is nominally ahead by 3 points, 37% to 34%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KWCH-TV Wichita and KCTV-TV Kansas City.
Who will win? The conservative or the maverick? And which is which?
Contrary to popular myth, the facts show that Tiarht is slightly more independent, more of a maverick legislator. On the other hand, Moran tends to vote in lockstep more consistently with the Republican leadership in Washington. Closer scrutiny shows that Moran is indeed the more conservative of the two.
According to the Washington Post, Jerry Moran has voted with a majority of his Republican colleagues 94.7% of the time during the current Congress.
Tiahrt goes 'rogue' more than Moran. The Washington Post lays out the information that Todd Tiahrt is the real maverick, not Moran. Tiahrt votes only 91.8% of the time in synchrony with the Republican Party.
Todd TiahrtUltimately, the lack of dramatic contrast between the two may be the underlying reason for their close primary poll numbers. Tiahrt and Moran actually tend to vote the same way, manifesting the same political philosophies.
Voters may never have really had occasion to compare these voting records before. Perhaps they are just now discovering the overwhelming similarities and the slight, but perhaps significant differences. Jerry Moran's close relationship with The Family
Apart from scandal and innuendo, Kansas are practical people. More than likely, voters (including reporters) are looking at Tiarht's and Moran's actions in Congress and examining the actual jobs the two are doing. It's certainly likely that more voters have become aware that Moran appears to be the least independent of the two in his legislative work.
For example, Moran has repeatedly voted to slash funding for Medicare, veteran's benefits and student loans, among other social safety net programs, even though Kansas, as a state, has over 10% of all veterans and his congressional district has an extremely high percentage of senior citizens that depend upon Medicare, Medicaid or both. While cutting those services, Moran simultaneously voted, time and again, to increase funding for war in Iraq.
Some of Moran's more recent votes include these:
- On Dec. 3, 2009, Moran voted AGAINST HR 4154: Permanent Estate Tax Relief for Families, Farmers, and Small Businesses Act of 2009
- On Nov. 7, 2009, Moran voted AGAINST HR 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act (establishing Health Care Reform)
- On Oct. 15, 2009, Moran voted AGAINST HR 2892: Making Appropriations for Homeland Security Fy 2010
- On Oct. 7, 2009, Moran voted AGAINST HR 2997: Making Appropriations for Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Programs
Some may, at this point, imagine that Moran began voting in greater lockstep with the right wing as a strategy to secure funding for his new Senate campaign. But, Moran's conservative voting record is not at all a new phenomenon. He has voted conservatively throughout his years in the House.
Moran has routinely voted in favor of escalated defense spending overseas and has voted for decreased funding of social services here at home. Writers at the progressive blog, EverydayCitizen.com, have documented some of Moran's key congressional votes over the last few years:
- Moran voted against the Fair Pay Act
- Moran voted against the Matthew Shepard Act
- Moran voted against workers rights
- Moran voted to cutback Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security while voting to increase funding for the wrongheaded war in Iraq
- Moran not adequately supporting veterans
- Moran votes with the rich and powerful and shows little regard for the working class.
- Moran votes consistently against veterans.
To learn more about Moran's and Tiahrt's voting records, we recommend Moran's Voting Record and Tiahrt's Voting Record (Washington Post).
Tiahrt, who represents Kansas' 4th Congressional District, in southeastern Kansas, continues to hold a strong lead in that part of the state.
Moran, who represents Kansas' 1st Congressional District, which takes up most of the western two-thirds of the state, holds an overwhelming 52-point lead in western Kansas.
In northeastern Kansas, home to half the state's population, the two candidates today tie. In the four previous polls, Moran has consistently led in this neutral ground by margins ranging between 8 and 23 points, with between 1/3 and 1/2 of Northeastern Kansas voters undecided. Today, Tiahrt holds the nominal 1-point lead here, and 41% are undecided.
According to the pollsters, "the candidates have finished inside of the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error in 4 of 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls. Only in SurveyUSA's 10/05/09 release was Moran's lead significant. Compared to 10/05/09, Moran is down 6 points; Tiahrt is up 7 points."
Who will win the Republican primary? Well, that's one question we can't predict! The upcoming primary is likely to be a nail-biter.
Stay tuned here at the Kansas Free Press and we'll do our best to give you updates as we receive them.
Pamela, Thanks for this excellent article and legislative research. When John Doll ran against Jerry Moran, he would present the information about Moran's bad voting record, but alot of people wouldn't believe it. When it comes time to vote, you can't sit on the fence.