GREAT BEND, Kan. - While some believe the announcement that six-term Democrat Congressman Dennis Moore will not run for reelection is another nail in Kansas' Democrats 2010 coffin, it is far too soon to say anything definitive about next year's election.
The only certainty in politics is uncertainty. And with almost a year to go before the election, one must remember that things may look a lot different a year from now. The two wild cards in the equation are, to wit: 1) How will the heavily Republican Kansas legislature handle the budget crisis in the 2010 session, and, 2) Will President Obama's be viewed differently a year from now?
Regarding the state legislature, all 125 Kansas House of Representative seats are up for grabs. Governor Parkinson deserves a "profile in courage," for stepping up to the plate and making the difficult budget cuts. That puts the ball back in the Republican legislature's court. For the first time in years, the Kansas budget crisis is affecting real people in greater numbers than ever before. And there may be lots of new political activism among the disaffected. The last off-year (non-Presidential) election (2006) resulted in five new Democrat house members in Topeka.
Raj GoyleAt the federal level, things are tougher. Right now Obama is about as popular in Kansas as one-dollar wheat. But if meaningful health care legislation passes, and if the unemployment rate goes down, things will be different. The last President to face double-digit unemployment was Ronald Reagan, and his mid-term slogan: "Stay the Course," was pretty successful.
Laura Kelly
At the federal level, the Democrats have excellent candidates for Congress. Raj Goyle in Wichita is off to a great start. Laura Kelly is going to be a strong candidate against Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins. And Alan Jilka, former Salina Mayor will make a good run in the Big First. 
Alan Jilka
Governor candidate Tom Wiggans is unknown to most Kansans, but he has the kind of candidate profile that people will like when they get to know him better. And he has the financial means to fully introduce himself to Kansans who don't already know him. U.S. Senate candidate Schollenberger has great credentials if he can raise the money to become better known.
Tom Wiggans
Regarding the Kansas House of Representatives, they can either raise taxes (which will offend many) or let the current budget cuts stand (which will offend many.) Either way, the Democrats won't have much trouble finding candidates for House of Representatives. (The State Senate seats are not in play until 2012).
Charles Schollenberger
At the federal level, Obama needs to accomplish a great deal in the next 11 months to avoid being a drag on Kansas federal candidates. Nobody has a crystal ball. That's what elections are for. If the elections were held today, it would be a Republican tidal wave. Good thing the election is 11 months off.
Democrats have always been the minority party in Kansas. There will be triumphs, but lots of disappointments. But to those Kansas Democrats who feel like Chicago Cubs fans, remember what I. F. Stone said:
"The only kinds of fights worth fighting are those you are going to lose, because somebody has to fight them and lose and lose and lose until someday, somebody who believes as you do wins. In order for somebody to win an important, major fight 100 years hence, alot of other people have got to be willing--for the sheer fun and joy of it--to go right ahead and fight, knowing you're going to lose. You mustn't feel like a martyr. You've got to enjoy it."
Take it from me. During my lifetime, 12 Democrats have tried to win the western Barton County seat in the House of Representatives. All 12 of us have lost:
- Henry Wildgen (1966)
- Henry Wildgen (1968)
- Montie Deer (1970)
- Marvin Johnston (1972)
- Tom Schneider (1980)
- Lado Hernandez (1982)
- Michael Rainbolt (1984)
- Wally Straub (1986)
- Richard Fisher (1988)
- Joel Jackson (1990)
- Grady Bolding (1992)
- Tracy Smith (1996)
- Marty Keenan (2004)
- Marty Keenan (2006)
- Marty Keenan (2008)
Sooner or later, someone will win. The important thing is that Democrats be willing to step into the ring. And 2010 will offer lots of Democrat candidates for lots of offices.
The important thing is to fight the fight. And have fun doing it.
I'm not sure we inhabit the same planet. I understand that a year is a lifetime in politics, but given the general mood in the country, the dismal results coming from Washington and the general history that Democrats have never won the governor race three terms in a row - 2010 is shaping up to be dismal. Wiggans is a disaster of a candidate, Dennis Moore leaving is removing the one bright spot most Democrats could look to in this tough environment. It will take a small miracle to hold that seat. Raj has the best chance to win in the 4th, but it's going to be tough facing the head wind Democrats are facing this year. I want to share your optimism, but in reality, 2010 is going to be a very tough year for Democrats nation-wide and especially so in Kansas.
Marty, I love your optimism; never relent in what we know to be correct. With all hands on deck anything is possible. To give up that hope is to lose the spirit of what Democracy stands for. We cannot allow ourselves to live in fear of what may or may not come in 2010, to do so would be to allow the fear mongers to further their agenda.
Great post. Thanks for sharing this bit of motivation.